The Bibby Group | April 2025 Newsletter

Last week, I participated in a discussion with The Globe and Mail’s Carolyn Ireland. One of the topics that came up was the comparisons being made between today’s Toronto-area real estate market and the one from the 1990s. It’s clear why people are drawing the similarity: home sales last month in the Greater Toronto Area surprisingly reached their lowest level for March since 1995. And while our year started with spurts of positive momentum as the market tried to break through the cascading slumps of the past few years, we have faced yet another roadblock. Successive interest rate cuts have brought buyers back to our market, it’s true. But a pending federal election, trade war, and volatile stock market have once again caused uncertainty, which I’ll address further on…

The Toronto Real Estate Board released its latest Market Watch data report last week. Predictably, some segments are concerning. Detached home values in the central marketplace have remained relatively unchanged year over year (down 1%); however, the number of transactions is down 18%. The most concerning data point throughout all sectors is supply, which, for detached homes, is up 133% from this time last year. Semi-detached homes, meanwhile, have seen a slight increase in values (up 2%) year over year, while the number of transactions is up approximately 10%. Supply has increased significantly by an astonishing 180%.

Finally, the condominium market, which has had its share of turbulence, has seen a decline in year-over-year values of approximately 4%, while the number of transactions has declined by 21%. As the city centre has been plagued with higher supply levels for years, the number of condominium units currently for sale has once again increased by 39% from last March. My analysis of month-over-month data indicates that sales have been up since February of this year; however, supply is steadily increasing and will continue to do so as we enter what is generally our busiest season.

Drafting newsletters has proved a challenging exercise in 2025: by the time my analysis is done, external factors have often altered our market trajectory. Typical for this year, we could have two good weeks of successive sales, bringing buyers and sellers off the sidelines, only to have everything come to a grinding halt due to changes beyond our control. As someone who generally enjoys staying on top of current events (reading a newspaper is not as fun as it once was), it’s clear that the American president’s trade war has delivered chaos, triggered global market crashes, prompted recession warnings, and is responsible for tanking consumer confidence. While many of my recent newsletters have focused on supply levels, interest rates, and affordability, these topics now pale compared to the general uncertainty that reigns. Indeed, uncertainty impedes our ability to make important decisions personally and, of course, makes its presence felt in both small and larger markets.

The Canadian economy shed 33,000 jobs in March—the biggest loss since January 2022. These declines are generally considered a result of the uncertainty caused by U.S. tariffs and the threat to our economic growth. The Bank of Canada, for its part, is in a difficult position since it often raises interest rates to tame inflation but lowers the rate when unemployment is higher. There is still some underlying inflation, which will make the decision difficult. The BoC will make its announcement on April 16, with many believing the latest state of events and jobs report will increase the odds of a rate cut to 2.5%.

I am an optimist who enjoys helping clients get through the most turbulent of times; this is probably the most satisfying part of my practice. There is always a way through these markets. However, based on my read of the situation, spring will continue to see mounting supply for the coming months and a lower level of transactions with balanced-to-softening prices for unique, end-user-focused inventory (the marketplace I operate within). Days on the market will continue to increase (sorry). Pricing will not necessarily be the primary focus for getting transactions done in this marketplace. That said, mutual collaboration, creativity, and patience will create positive momentum. I urge my colleagues, developers, clients, and, most importantly, politicians at every level to work together to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes.