The Bibby Group | April 2026 Newsletter

I recently spoke with the Globe & Mail’s Carolyn Ireland about the state of Toronto’s real estate market, and the honest assessment may surprise you: it’s not all that bad. I have worked through years of high supply, declining prices, and low consumer confidence. The first quarter of 2026, by contrast, has had a pulse.

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board recently released its latest Market Watch report, and it paints
an improved picture over last spring’s condominium market. Year-over-year condominium supply has
declined by a significant 16.1%, while transactions have increased by 11.8% over the same period. Prices
are down 10.29% year over year—and those declines, combined with lower interest rates, have coaxed
apprehensive purchasers off the sidelines.

As I said throughout the booming market of the pandemic, I never quite felt at ease with the comfort
buyers had making unconditional offers and competing blindly in a frenzied market. Fast forward to
April 2026, where conditional offers are the norm (financing, inspection, etc.) and we are negotiating at
pricing levels from roughly eight years ago. None of us will perfectly time our transactions, but this
market feels more digestible than those of recent years.

As I wrote in my year-end newsletter for 2025, one of the most important indicators of where the
market would head in 2026 would be supply levels in the first quarter. I acknowledged then that
meaningful change would require other contributors—lower interest rates, or policy shifts at the federal
or provincial level. We’re now seeing exactly that. Recent federal–Ontario agreements on HST rebates
and lower development charges on new homes should help unstick the marketplace and allow newly
built projects to compete with a more competitively priced resale market. A recently completed project
I’m marketing for Gairloch Developments at 1414 Bayview Avenue has seen a surge in showings and
inquiries since the announcement—early evidence that the policy is working.

Our group started the year with 39 condominiums for sale; we currently have 18 active listings as I write
this. Our own inventory isn’t a perfect bellwether for the broader market, but in the middle of what is
typically our “busy” spring, the flow of prospective sellers feels quieter than usual—which, counterintuitively, is a good thing. Last year, supply jumped nearly 40% from Q1 to Q2. This year, the
trend appears to be running the other way.

The condominium market is not free of uncertainty, and I believe our road to recovery will be slow but steady. I don’t expect a sudden return to double-digit year-over-year growth and bidding wars—though  I recently had two condominiums sell, listed for three and seven months respectively, with two offers on
each. In what has been a less-than-inspiring marketplace for four years, any relief is welcome. It is slowly starting to feel as though we’re returning to a healthier state, as lower supply levels, greater
affordability, and policy change at the federal and provincial level drive more transactions. We won’t fix
the market’s problems overnight. But the optimist in me sees signs of life and real progress—and after
four years, that counts for something.