The Bibby Group | July 2026 Newsletter

Most of my real estate conversations with clients and acquaintances in recent months have opened the same way: “I know the market isn’t doing well,” or “I know it’s not a good time to sell.” 

After four years of turbulence, that’s a fair assumption; however, my current view is that today’s conditions aren’t that bad. I recently spoke with the Globe & Mail’s Carolyn Ireland about the state of Toronto’s real estate market, and I’m seeing real signs of life. Sentiment is improving. In an earlier newsletter this year, I stated that supply would mainly dictate the market’s direction, and this has held true. 

The latest Market Watch report points to emerging signs of recovery: supply is down, transactions are up across most segments, and existing inventory is being absorbed—likely due to softer prices and interest rates that have held steady. On the condominium side, supply has fallen by an astonishing 22% year over year, while transactions have climbed 13%, even as prices have eased by roughly 9%. Detached home sales rose 28% against a 7% drop in supply, with pricing down nearly 3%. Semi-detached sales decreased 6% while supply decreased 10% and prices increased 3%.

On the freehold side, I’m currently working with four couples, and we are back to offer dates—and, in some cases, bidding wars. While the offer dates are not always achieving the desired outcome of both parties, this practice indicates an emerging sign of slow recovery due to lower supply and increasing demand. Since I mainly focus my business on the resale side, I’m noticing a domino effect with the recovering freehold (housing) market. Higher sale prices for homes are sending downsizers back into the condominium market. We sold a 3,000-square-foot condominium for $3,295,000 last week, and as I write this newsletter, I am actively negotiating an offer on a $2,795,000 condominium listing. A developer I’m representing in Leaside has pivoted with their remaining supply, and we have leased out 35% of the remaining inventory, which shows confidence in the marketplace longer term, providing relief on the supply side and creating urgency on the sale side. One of their remaining suites just sold to downsizers. If I had to pinpoint the single lagging sector, it is the one-bedroom market, which caters to investors and first-time buyers. Otherwise, the market is starting to feel balanced. 

This week, the Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight lending rate at 2.25%, marking its sixth consecutive pause. The rate hold has created a sense of urgency amongst buyers who had been waiting for lower rates, although many economists believe the BoC is more likely to keep rates steady in the coming months rather than cut. 

I believe supply will stay historically low through the summer and into Labour Day, which can only benefit the marketplace. This will not be a dormant summer market. Are prices back to their all-time high? No. Will the market fully recover in the coming months? No. Are we trending toward a healthier marketplace? Yes. And that’s what matters. One small step at a time.