The Bibby Group | October 2025 Newsletter

After a sluggish summer, it feels like Toronto’s real estate market is slowly getting back to work. In a recent interview with The Globe and Mail’s Carolyn Ireland, I highlighted that successive month-over-month price declines are finally bringing buyers off the sidelines, as the number of transactions marginally trends upwards.

Over the past three weeks, our team has sold eight listings (with three more sold conditionally)—many of which had been sitting for months and, in one case, nearly two years. Most required price adjustments, and as of writing, we are actively preparing price reductions on three properties. Not surprisingly, adaptability has been an effective tool in recent weeks. While some clients remain in “sit and wait” mode, the broader feeling is less about inflection point and more about a gradual move toward stabilization. Sellers are finding opportunities to exit and move forward—something that was far less attainable in recent months amid low consumer confidence.

Three and half years ago, I wouldn’t have predicted prices would fall to current levels—in some cases back to 2018 values. The unpredictability of markets is intriguing. For much of the last two decades, stability and low volatility were the norm, with downturns typically followed by quick rebounds fueled by strong population growth and demand. Today’s market is different, however. Tracking listings beyond my own portfolio, I’ve noticed a common outcome: sellers who priced 10–15% above the market for prolonged periods often missed their window for stronger returns, eventually selling for less after adjusting.

Incremental Improvements In Toronto Real Estate Market Helping Restore Equilibrium.

Another interesting fact about today’s market: the lack of performance over the last three years has prompted many investors to sell rental suites and put the proceeds to use in other areas of their life by either paying down debt, increasing general liquidity, or reinvesting with financial advisors. This shift in the marketplace is rebalancing our relationship with property ownership and marking the end of the investor frenzy that defined the last cycle—a healthy development overall.

The Toronto Real Estate Board released its latest Market Watch report, which revealed that year-over-year condominium prices in Central Toronto are down 2.4%, sales have increased by 3.3%, and active supply is down by 1%. This is encouraging news, as supply is stabilizing and the number of sales is increasing. Single-family freehold prices have historically been more resilient during market adjustments, but even our strong Central Toronto detached home segment has seen prices fall year over year by 13.2%.  Yet this adjustment has opened the door to more buyers, with sales up 6.1% and inventory rising 35%.

After months of holding steady, the BoC lowered interest rates by cutting its policy rate a quarter point to 2.5%, responding to slowing economy and reduced inflationary pressures. While this move will not fully reignite our stagnant market, it is nonetheless a positive step in the right direction.

Looking ahead into the fall, I expect to see year-over-year increases in the number of transactions as consumers regain confidence in a market that has reset to levels not seen in years. Supply will remain the critical variable to watch, as it will dictate both pricing and pace of activity. While many wonder which single factor will trigger a turning point, my view is that incremental improvements, namely lower rates, softer prices, and more balanced inventory, will collectively lead us back to stability. In 2025, adaptability and patience have proved the most valuable tools, and they are gradually helping to restore equilibrium in Toronto’s real estate market.