The Bibby Group | Year-End Market Review

A Year Defined by Change and Uncertainty

What a year it has been. As the holidays approach and I begin this annual year-end letter, I find myself reflecting on the incredible clients we’ve served, the lessons learned in a shifting market, and the landscape that awaits in 2026.

This year was defined by significant, market-altering moments. From a federal election that ushered in a new prime minister and a provincial election at home, to a new U.S. president and the subsequent impact of tariffs on our economy, the macro environment was turbulent, to say the least. On the home front, we saw four consecutive interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada and persistent supply issues that tested consumer confidence. Even for my most well-informed clients and colleagues, the severity of this year’s volatility outpaced most predictions.

Optimism, Reality, Acceptance
The real estate story of 2025 was one of shifting momentum. We began the first quarter at a surprisingly brisk pace, with lower supply levels creating a sense of optimism. However, by springtime—traditionally our busiest season—a dramatic surge in inventory eroded that early momentum. As sales dipped into the summer, sellers quickly came to terms with the new reality and began adjusting their pricing expectations. By fall, we saw a modest uptick in transactions, triggered by lower prices and a stabilizing inventory that gave buyers the confidence to return to the table.

Signs of Stabilization in the Condo Market
In the condo segment, supply levels have declined by 4% year over year. This is an encouraging sign, as we need higher absorption rates to return to balance. As developers pause new projects, we hope the resale market will normalize. Remarkably, as I write this, I am working on a transaction landing at 2018 pricing—a scenario few would have predicted just three years ago. While sales volume is down 21%, the 3% year-over-year price decline is a relatively digestible statistic compared to the erosion we’ve seen since the spring of 2022.

Freehold Market: A Delayed Correction
Historically, the single-family detached market has remained stable due to fixed supply and an end-user (rather than investor) base. However, it became the most disrupted sector of 2025. While the condo sector corrected early due to its investor-heavy tilt and more speculative nature, the freehold market saw supply jump by an astonishing 32% this year. With sales down 17% and prices dropping 11% year-over-year, we are navigating territory that feels unfamiliar to many.

Looking Ahead to 2026
So, where do we go from here? In a recent conversation with Carolyn Ireland of The Globe & Mail, I predicted that the start of 2026 will benefit from lower supply levels. Many discouraged sellers have retreated from the market, creating an opportunity for those committed to a sale.
However, we must remain vigilant. If we see another dramatic increase in supply in Q2, it could erode our progress once again. We are currently at a 25-year low for transactions in the GTA, and there is no silver bullet solution. Instead, confidence will be rebuilt through incremental positive news—be it in trade, infrastructure, jobs, or manufacturing. While prices may continue to soften in the short term as the last holdout sellers from the 2022–2024 era adjust to reality, I anticipate a more balanced marketplace in the back half of 2026.
Selling a home has become more stressful than in years past, with more at stake for everyone involved. However, I have noticed a meaningful shift this year: compared to sellers from 2022–2024, today’s sellers show far less resistance and a greater acceptance of what it takes to transact successfully in this market. In prior years, many believed their home was somehow immune to market forces. These corrections have impacted everyone, and 2025 feels like a year of acceptance.

Perspective and Gratitude
The partnerships that have formed with my clients over the past year have been especially meaningful. In stronger markets, the pace was often so fast that transactions became purely transactional, leaving little time to build deeper relationships. I often joke now that my clients and I will eventually learn everything about one another—we speak frequently, sometimes for the better part of a year. As these relationships deepen, trust and connection flourish. It has become common for clients to ask about my family, my team, whether my sons won their basketball or soccer games the night before, or whether I’ve had time for lunch. This year, some clients even celebrated the sales of other clients they had never met—“They sold! I’m happy for them.” We truly were all in it together.
A more meaningful side of this business has emerged, and that is what I am most grateful for in 2025. Knowing that, as a group, we were able to help people when they needed it most—and grow closer as a community in the process—has made all the difference.
With over 20 years as a broker, I have been incredibly fortunate to work alongside thoughtful, caring clients and help sell their unique and special properties. I am grateful for my family at home, who makes me better each day, and for a team that works relentlessly throughout the year to ensure our clients’ objectives are met.
Thank you all. My family and The Bibby Group wish you wonderful holidays, good health, happiness, and every success in 2026.